perm filename HOTER.XGP[S76,JMC] blob
sn#218712 filedate 1976-06-06 generic text, type T, neo UTF8
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␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ∧←THE HOME INFORMATION TERMINAL
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ¬
John McCarthy, Stanford University
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT␈↓αAbstract:␈↓␈αThe␈αreal␈α"computer␈αrevolution"␈αhasn't␈αhappened␈αyet,␈αbecause␈αpeople␈αdon't␈αyet␈αuse
␈↓ α∧␈↓computers␈αin␈αtheir␈αdaily␈αlives.␈α When␈αmost␈α
people␈αhave␈α␈↓↓home␈↓␈α␈↓↓computer␈↓␈α␈↓↓terminals␈↓␈αwith␈αaccess␈αto␈α
all
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αworld's␈αpublic␈αinformation,␈αit␈αwill␈αrevolutionize␈αthe␈αway␈αwe␈αconduct␈αour␈αpersonal␈αbusiness,␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓way␈αwe␈αlearn␈αnew␈αskills,␈αthe␈αway␈αwe␈αread,␈αthe␈αway␈αinformation␈αis␈αpublished␈αand␈αsold,␈αthe␈αconduct
␈↓ α∧␈↓of political and other controversy, and how we decide what to buy.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∞technology␈α∞for␈α∂␈↓↓information␈↓␈α∞␈↓↓utilities␈↓␈α∞serving␈α∞home␈α∂computer␈α∞terminals␈α∞is␈α∂already␈α∞here
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α∞cheap␈α
enough␈α∞and␈α
will␈α∞get␈α
much␈α∞cheaper,␈α
but␈α∞the␈α
organizational␈α∞problems␈α
of␈α∞creating␈α
new
␈↓ α∧␈↓public utilities are formidable.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThis␈αpaper␈αtreats␈αthe␈αservices␈αthat␈αcan␈αbe␈α
offered,␈αwhy␈αpeople␈αwill␈αwant␈αthem,␈αwhy␈αthey␈α
are
␈↓ α∧␈↓important␈αsocially,␈αthe␈αrelevant␈α
technology␈αand␈αits␈αcosts,␈α
some␈αsocial␈αproblems␈αassociated␈α
with␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓new␈α∞technology␈α
-␈α∞especially␈α
the␈α∞problem␈α∞of␈α
minimizing␈α∞monopoly,␈α
and␈α∞some␈α∞relevant␈α
experience
␈↓ α∧␈↓and experiments at Stanford University.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|1␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ε¬INTRODUCTION
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThere␈α⊂has␈α⊂been␈α∂a␈α⊂scientific␈α⊂and␈α∂technological␈α⊂"computer␈α⊂revolution",␈α∂but␈α⊂it␈α⊂hasn't␈α∂much
␈↓ α∧␈↓affected␈α⊂daily␈α∂life␈α⊂except␈α∂to␈α⊂improve␈α∂living␈α⊂standards␈α∂by␈α⊂making␈α∂goods␈α⊂and␈α∂services␈α⊂with␈α∂less
␈↓ α∧␈↓labor.␈↓∧1␈↓
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTSince␈αWorld␈α
War␈αII,␈αthe␈α
technology␈αof␈αtransforming␈α
information␈αhas␈αbecome␈α
ever␈αcheaper
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α∞more␈α∞powerful.␈α∞ It␈α∂will␈α∞keep␈α∞getting␈α∞cheaper␈α∞-␈α∂if␈α∞only␈α∞because␈α∞the␈α∞technology␈α∂of␈α∞integrated
␈↓ α∧␈↓circuits␈α∞is␈α∂far␈α∞from␈α∞using␈α∂up␈α∞the␈α∂engineering␈α∞possibilities␈α∞offered␈α∂by␈α∞the␈α∞science␈α∂on␈α∞which␈α∂it␈α∞is
␈↓ α∧␈↓based.␈α The␈αadvance␈αin␈αthe␈αqualitative␈αpossibilities␈αof␈αtransforming␈αinformation␈αis␈αalso␈αlarge,␈αbut
␈↓ α∧␈↓progress requires continued conceptual advance.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTComputer␈αtechnology␈α
now␈αmakes␈αpossible␈α
new␈αservices␈α
that␈αwill␈αgive␈α
us␈αnew␈αsignificant␈α
new
␈↓ α∧␈↓options in our daily lives.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWithin␈α
the␈α
twenty␈α
years␈α
and␈α
beginning␈α
within␈α
the␈α
next␈α
five,␈α
the␈α
home␈α∞computer␈α
terminal
␈↓ α∧␈↓will␈α⊗revolutionize␈α∃the␈α⊗way␈α⊗we␈α∃conduct␈α⊗our␈α∃personal␈α⊗business␈α⊗as␈α∃much␈α⊗as␈α⊗the␈α∃automobile
␈↓ α∧␈↓revolutionized␈α
the␈α
way␈α
we␈α
get␈α
around.␈α
It␈α
will␈α
also␈α
revolutionize␈α
the␈α
way␈α
information␈αis␈α
distributed
␈↓ α∧␈↓in our society, and this will have substantial effects on politics and education.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
terminal␈α
itself␈α
will␈α
be␈α
rather␈α
like␈α
those␈α
already␈α
in␈α
use␈α
by␈α
computer␈αprogrammers,␈α
airline
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α
other␈αreservation␈α
clerks,␈α
etc.␈α consisting␈α
of␈αa␈α
typewriter␈α
keyboard␈αand␈α
a␈αdisplay␈α
for␈α
text␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓ε␈↓ αT1.␈α∞The␈α∞prevalent␈α∞belief␈α
that␈α∞technology␈α∞is␈α∞changing␈α∞the␈α
world␈α∞faster␈α∞and␈α∞faster,␈α∞and␈α
people
␈↓ α∧␈↓εcan't␈αadapt␈αto␈αit␈α-␈αis␈αwrong.␈α In␈αfact,␈αthe␈αinventions␈αbrought␈αinto␈αuse␈αsince␈αWorld␈αWar␈αII␈αsuch␈αas␈αTV,
␈↓ α∧␈↓εjet␈αtravel␈α
and␈αthe␈αpill␈α
have␈αaffected␈αdaily␈α
life␈αmuch␈αless␈α
than␈αthose␈αadopted␈α
between␈α1890␈αand␈α
1920
␈↓ α∧␈↓εsuch␈α
as␈α∞electric␈α
lights,␈α
piped-in␈α∞gas,␈α
telephones,␈α
automobiles,␈α∞and␈α
mechanical␈α∞refrigeration␈α
affected
␈↓ α∧␈↓εthe␈αlife␈αof␈αthat␈αtime.␈α For␈αmost␈αpeople,␈αcomputers,␈αnuclear␈αenergy,␈αlasers,␈αand␈αDNA␈αare␈αjust␈αnames␈α
in
␈↓ α∧␈↓εthe␈αnews,␈αbecause␈α
no-one␈αcares␈αwhether␈α
his␈αelectric␈αbill␈αwas␈α
prepared␈αby␈αa␈α
typist␈αor␈αa␈αcomputer␈α
or
␈↓ α∧␈↓εwhether the light goes on because of burning coal or fissioning uranium.
␈↓ α∧␈↓ε␈↓ αTSince␈α∪people␈α∪take␈α∪health␈α∪and␈α∪prosperity␈α∪as␈α∪only␈α∪their␈α∪just␈α∪deserts,␈α∪maybe␈α∪the␈α∪lack␈α∪of
␈↓ α∧␈↓εtechnological␈αinnovation␈αin␈αdaily␈αlife␈αcontributes␈αto␈αthe␈αanti-technological␈αintellectual␈αfads.␈α This␈αlack
␈↓ α∧␈↓εis␈αtemporary,␈αbecause␈αcheap␈αinformation␈αprocessing␈αwill␈αlead␈αto␈αmany␈αmore␈αpopular␈αinventions␈αthan
␈↓ α∧␈↓εthose discussed in this paper.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|2␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓pictures.␈α
The␈α
revolution␈α
will␈α∞come␈α
not␈α
from␈α
the␈α∞terminals␈α
themselves␈α
but␈α
from␈α∞the␈α
information
␈↓ α∧␈↓services␈α∂provided␈α∂by␈α∞the␈α∂computers␈α∂to␈α∂which␈α∞the␈α∂terminals␈α∂are␈α∂connected␈α∞and␈α∂by␈α∂the␈α∂access␈α∞to
␈↓ α∧␈↓nation-wide sources of information.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αpurpose␈αof␈αthis␈αpaper␈αis␈αto␈αoutline␈αthe␈αservices␈αthat␈αcan␈αbe␈αprovided,␈αidentify␈αsome␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α⊗important␈α⊗effects,␈α⊗describe␈α⊗the␈α⊗necessary␈α⊗technology,␈α⊗and␈α⊗identify␈α⊗the␈α⊗areas␈α↔in␈α⊗which
␈↓ α∧␈↓institutional␈α∂changes␈α∂will␈α∞be␈α∂forced␈α∂by␈α∂the␈α∞technology.␈α∂ (By␈α∂␈↓↓forced␈↓,␈α∞I␈α∂mean␈α∂that␈α∂institutions␈α∞not
␈↓ α∧␈↓making the changes will go out of business unless new ways of doing business are made illegal).
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ¬HOME INFORMATION SERVICES
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTVisionaries␈α_have␈α↔often␈α_envisaged␈α↔homes␈α_equipped␈α↔with␈α_information␈α_terminals␈α↔each
␈↓ α∧␈↓consisting␈αof␈αa␈αtypewriter␈α
keyboard␈αand␈αa␈αscreen␈α
capable␈αof␈αdisplaying␈αone␈α
or␈αmore␈αpages␈αof␈α
print
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α∀pictures.␈α∀ The␈α∪terminal␈α∀would␈α∀be␈α∪connected␈α∀by␈α∀the␈α∪telephone␈α∀system␈α∀to␈α∀a␈α∪time-shared
␈↓ α∧␈↓computer␈α
which␈α
in␈αturn␈α
has␈α
access␈αto␈α
files␈α
containing␈αall␈α
books,␈α
magazines,␈α
newspapers,␈αcatalogs,
␈↓ α∧␈↓airline␈α∂schedules,␈α∂much␈α∂all␈α∂government␈α∂and␈α∂commercial␈α∂information␈α∂subject␈α∂to␈α∂the␈α∂Freedom␈α∞of
␈↓ α∧␈↓Information␈α
Act␈α
and␈α
the␈α
like,␈α
together␈α
with␈α
any␈α
information␈α
the␈α
citizen␈α
himself␈α
wishes␈α
to␈αkeep,␈α
e.g.
␈↓ α∧␈↓his␈αcorrespondence,␈αbills␈αpaid,␈αmedical␈αrecords,␈αinsurance␈αpolicies,␈αand␈αserial␈αnumbers␈αof␈αpersonal
␈↓ α∧␈↓property.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThrough␈α
the␈α∞terminal␈α
the␈α
subscriber␈α∞can␈α
get␈α
any␈α∞information␈α
he␈α
wants,␈α∞can␈α
buy␈α∞and␈α
sell,
␈↓ α∧␈↓can␈α⊃communicate␈α⊂with␈α⊃persons␈α⊂and␈α⊃institutions,␈α⊂can␈α⊃receive␈α⊂and␈α⊃pay␈α⊂his␈α⊃bills␈α⊂and␈α⊃taxes,␈α⊂and
␈↓ α∧␈↓process information in other useful ways.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT1. Reading
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWe␈α⊂can␈α⊃start␈α⊂with␈α⊃ordinary␈α⊂reading.␈α⊃ To␈α⊂get␈α⊂a␈α⊃newspaper␈α⊂or␈α⊃book,␈α⊂I␈α⊃type␈α⊂its␈α⊃name␈α⊂or
␈↓ α∧␈↓number and the first page appears. The most obvious benefits are:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|3␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.1.␈α
I␈α
can␈α
get␈α
any␈α
document␈α
instantly.␈α
Since␈α
the␈α
desire␈α
to␈α
read␈α
a␈α
particular␈α∞book␈α
or
␈↓ α∧␈↓article is often fleeting, much more will be read if access is guaranteed and immediate.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.2.␈α
My␈α
house␈α
isn't␈α
full␈α
of␈α
paper␈α
to␈α
be␈α
sorted␈α
and␈α
put␈α
on␈α
shelves␈α
and␈α
dusted␈α
or␈α
put␈α
in
␈↓ α∧␈↓the trash. Trees aren't cut down, and air pollution doesn't result from burning the stuff.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTSome immediately apparent disadvantages are:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.3. The expense. I'll deal with this later.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.4.␈α∃I␈α∃can't␈α∃read␈α∀in␈α∃bed.␈α∃ The␈α∃book-size␈α∀portable␈α∃terminal␈α∃will␈α∃come␈α∃later.␈α∀ A
␈↓ α∧␈↓household␈α∀may␈α∀require␈α∀several␈α∀terminals,␈α∀and␈α∪until␈α∀the␈α∀book-terminal␈α∀is␈α∀available,␈α∀we␈α∪will
␈↓ α∧␈↓probably have to compromise with ecological sin and provide a printer until then.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThere are two other immediate negative reactions:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.5.␈α The␈αaverage␈αcitizen␈αis␈αa␈αTV␈α
fan␈αand␈αdoesn't␈αread␈αanyway.␈α In␈αthe␈αfirst␈α
place,␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓home␈αterminal␈αsystem␈αdoesn't␈αneed␈αmore␈αthan␈α
a␈αsmall␈αminority␈αof␈αthe␈αpopulation␈αas␈αsubscribers␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓be␈α∞economical,␈α∞so␈α∞if␈α∞you␈α∞read,␈α∞you␈α∞will␈α∂benefit␈α∞whether␈α∞he␈α∞does␈α∞or␈α∞not.␈α∞ Secondly,␈α∞after␈α∂I␈α∞have
␈↓ α∧␈↓described␈αall␈αthe␈αbells␈αand␈αwhistles,␈αyou␈αwill␈αsee␈αthat␈αeven␈αthe␈αTV␈αfan␈αwill␈αbe␈αtempted,␈αand␈αyou␈α-
␈↓ α∧␈↓oh␈α∩socially␈α∩conscious␈α∩reader␈α∩-␈α∩may␈α∩even␈α∪want␈α∩to␈α∩coerce␈α∩him␈α∩into␈α∩buying␈α∩one␈α∩or␈α∪coerce␈α∩the
␈↓ α∧␈↓government into giving him one for free.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$1.6.␈α∞How␈α∞can␈α∞you␈α
think␈α∞of␈α∞one␈α∞more␈α∞convenience␈α
and␈α∞comfort␈α∞when␈α∞the␈α∞world␈α
will
␈↓ α∧␈↓come␈αto␈αan␈αend␈αin␈αten␈αyears␈αunless␈αmenaces␈αA,␈αB,␈αand␈αC␈αare␈αdealt␈αwith␈αimmediately?␈α In␈αthe␈αfirst
␈↓ α∧␈↓place,␈αI␈αdon't␈αthink␈αthe␈αworld␈αis␈αabout␈αto␈αcome␈αto␈αan␈αend␈αor␈αeven␈αthat␈αit␈αis␈αgetting␈αworse.␈α In␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓second␈α
place,␈α
you␈α
will␈α
see␈α
that␈α
the␈α
new␈α
information␈α
system␈α
will␈α
make␈α
the␈α
public␈α
more␈αresponsive␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αcareful␈α
reasoning␈αof␈αyou␈α
good␈αguys␈αand␈α
more␈αimmune␈α
to␈αthe␈αblatant␈α
propaganda␈αof␈αthose␈α
bad
␈↓ α∧␈↓guys.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTIn␈α∞order␈α∞to␈α∞see␈α∞some␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞social␈α
effects␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∞new␈α∞information␈α∞system,␈α∞suppose␈α∞that␈α
all
␈↓ α∧␈↓book and newspaper information were so distributed. What changes would occur?
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|4␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAt␈αpresent,␈αa␈αnewspaper,␈αmagazine␈αor␈αbook␈αis␈αa␈αpackage␈αproduced␈αby␈αa␈αlarge␈αorganization.
␈↓ α∧␈↓With␈α⊃the␈α⊃information␈α⊃utility,␈α⊃the␈α∩physical␈α⊃production␈α⊃and␈α⊃distribution␈α⊃disappears,␈α∩allowing␈α⊃a
␈↓ α∧␈↓much␈αsmaller␈αorganization␈αto␈αput␈αout␈αthe␈αsame␈αpackages␈αof␈αtext␈αand␈αpictures.␈α Moreover,␈αthe␈αuser
␈↓ α∧␈↓does␈αnot␈α
face␈αa␈α
one␈αshot␈α
decision␈αto␈α
buy␈α␈↓↓Time␈↓␈α
or␈α␈↓↓Newsweek.␈↓␈α
He␈αwill␈α
be␈αable␈α
to␈αread␈α
the␈α"cover"␈α
or
␈↓ α∧␈↓table␈α
of␈αcontents␈α
of␈αeach,␈α
read␈α
such␈αitems␈α
as␈αstrike␈α
his␈αfancy,␈α
and␈α
the␈αsystem␈α
will␈αbill␈α
him␈αfor␈α
what
␈↓ α∧␈↓he␈αreads␈α
from␈αeach␈α
source.␈α In␈α
fact,␈αsince␈α
the␈αcost␈α
of␈αkeeping␈α
a␈αfile␈α
of␈αinformation␈α
in␈αthe␈α
computer
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈αmaking␈αit␈αpublicly␈αavailable␈αwill␈αbe␈αsmall,␈α
even␈αa␈αhigh␈αschool␈αstudent␈αcould␈αcompete␈αwith␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓↓New␈↓␈α⊂␈↓↓Yorker␈↓␈α⊂if␈α⊃he␈α⊂could␈α⊂write␈α⊃well␈α⊂enough␈α⊂and␈α⊃if␈α⊂word␈α⊂of␈α⊃mouth␈α⊂and␈α⊂mention␈α⊃by␈α⊂reviewers
␈↓ α∧␈↓brought him to public attention. What, then, is a magazine in the information utility?
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈α
magazine␈αis␈α
an␈α
organization␈αthat␈α
puts␈αout␈α
a␈α
list␈αof␈α
material␈α
it␈αhas␈α
edited␈αand␈α
recommends
␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α
its␈α
readers.␈α
It␈α
helps␈α
its␈α
authors␈α
produce␈α
material␈α
that␈α
it␈α
thinks␈α
will␈α
suit␈α
the␈α
readers,␈α
and␈α
it␈αhas␈α
a
␈↓ α∧␈↓financial␈α
arrangement␈α∞with␈α
them␈α∞about␈α
splitting␈α∞the␈α
proceeds.␈α∞ It␈α
may␈α∞or␈α
may␈α∞not␈α
have␈α∞its␈α
own
␈↓ α∧␈↓computer,␈αand␈αit␈αis␈α
unlikely␈αthat␈αit␈αwould␈αbe␈α
profitable␈αfor␈αit␈αto␈αown␈α
the␈αdisk␈αfiles␈αfrom␈αwhich␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓"issues"␈α
are␈α
accessed␈αby␈α
readers.␈α
More␈αlikely,␈α
it␈α
would␈αrent␈α
space␈α
on␈αpublic␈α
utility␈α
disk␈α
files␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓pay the utility to bill its readers.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThere␈α
can␈αbe␈α
a␈αwide␈α
variety␈α
of␈αmagazines␈α
with␈αdifferent␈α
standards␈αof␈α
writing␈α
and␈αediting
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈αdifferent␈αbudgets␈αfor␈αcarrying␈αout␈αthese␈αactivities.␈α However,␈αthey␈αwill␈αbe␈αequally␈αaccessible␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓readers,␈α∩and␈α∩an␈α∩expensive␈α⊃editorial␈α∩organization␈α∩will␈α∩be␈α∩profitable␈α⊃only␈α∩if␈α∩it␈α∩can␈α∩produce␈α⊃a
␈↓ α∧␈↓package␈α∂that␈α∂a␈α∂large␈α∂group␈α∂of␈α∂people␈α∂prefers␈α⊂to␈α∂the␈α∂bare␈α∂output␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂writers.␈α∂ The␈α⊂price␈α∂of
␈↓ α∧␈↓reading a package will be set by the publishers.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTFamous␈α
authors␈α
may␈α∞not␈α
need␈α
publishers␈α∞because␈α
their␈α
loyal␈α∞readers␈α
will␈α
have␈α∞the␈α
system
␈↓ α∧␈↓find their stuff automatically.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈α_common␈α_complaint␈α_about␈α_newspapers␈α_from␈α_readers␈α_and␈α_reporters␈α_alike␈α_is␈α↔their
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|5␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓shallowness.␈α
This␈α
comes␈α
from␈α
the␈α
editorial␈αnecessity␈α
of␈α
producing␈α
a␈α
general␈α
interest␈αpackage␈α
every
␈↓ α∧␈↓day.␈α
The␈α
new␈α
form␈α
of␈α
publication␈α
will␈α
permit␈αa␈α
reporter␈α
specializing␈α
in␈α
a␈α
country␈α
or␈α
a␈α
topic␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓produce␈α
articles␈α
as␈α
long␈α
as␈α
he␈α
pleases␈α
so␈α
long␈α
as␈α
he␈α
also␈α
produces␈α
the␈α
short␈α
items␈α
for␈α
the␈α
casual
␈↓ α∧␈↓reader.␈α∂ The␈α∞␈↓↓New␈α∂York␈α∞Times␈↓␈α∂correspondent␈α∞in␈α∂Constantinople␈α∞will␈α∂be␈α∞able␈α∂to␈α∞fully␈α∂satisfy␈α∞the
␈↓ α∧␈↓fans␈α∂of␈α∞Byzantine␈α∂politics,␈α∞and␈α∂there␈α∞needn't␈α∂be␈α∞more␈α∂than␈α∞a␈α∂few␈α∞hundred␈α∂of␈α∞them␈α∂to␈α∂pay␈α∞his
␈↓ α∧␈↓salary.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTA␈α
reader␈α
may␈αfeel␈α
that␈α
he␈αneeds␈α
help␈α
in␈αfinding␈α
his␈α
way␈αthrough␈α
the␈α
totality␈α
of␈αliterature
␈↓ α∧␈↓available␈αto␈αhim.␈α People␈αwill␈αbe␈αeager␈αto␈αmake␈αa␈αliving␈αproviding␈αit.␈α A␈αbookstore␈αor␈αlibrary␈αis␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓program␈αthat␈αshows␈αthe␈α"covers"␈αof␈αpublications.␈α Reviewers␈αwill␈αproduce␈αlists␈αfor␈αhim␈α
and␈αmake
␈↓ α∧␈↓money␈α∞when␈α∂he␈α∞reads␈α∞their␈α∂lists␈α∞or␈α∞by␈α∂kickbacks␈α∞from␈α∞the␈α∂publishers.␈α∞ ␈↓↓Reading␈↓␈α∂␈↓↓advisers␈↓␈α∞under
␈↓ α∧␈↓some␈αcatchier␈αname␈αwill␈αoffer␈αto␈αgenerate␈αlists␈αjust␈αfor␈αhim␈αaccording␈αto␈αa␈αprofile␈αof␈αhis␈αinterests.
␈↓ α∧␈↓A␈α
more␈αexotic␈α
possibility␈αis␈α
that␈αprograms␈α
may␈αbe␈α
written␈αto␈α
identify␈αwritings␈α
that␈αwere␈α
liked␈αby␈α
a
␈↓ α∧␈↓large␈α⊂percentage␈α⊃of␈α⊂the␈α⊂few␈α⊃science␈α⊂fiction␈α⊃fans␈α⊂who␈α⊂have␈α⊃read␈α⊂them␈α⊂and␈α⊃bring␈α⊂them␈α⊃to␈α⊂the
␈↓ α∧␈↓attention␈α∞of␈α∂a␈α∞much␈α∞larger␈α∂science␈α∞fiction␈α∂public.␈α∞ If␈α∞a␈α∂fraction␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∂science␈α∞fiction␈α∂fans␈α∞were
␈↓ α∧␈↓willing␈α⊂to␈α∂look␈α⊂at␈α∂a␈α⊂random␈α⊂sample␈α∂of␈α⊂the␈α∂"slush␈α⊂pile"␈α⊂of␈α∂new␈α⊂writing,␈α∂then␈α⊂the␈α⊂system␈α∂could
␈↓ α∧␈↓function␈α
without␈αany␈α
official␈α
editors␈αat␈α
all.␈α
Presumably␈αpeople␈α
who␈α
thought␈αthey␈α
could␈αtell␈α
writers
␈↓ α∧␈↓how to write better would offer their services directly to the writers.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAdvertising␈αin␈αthe␈αsense␈αof␈αsomething␈αthat␈αcan␈αforce␈αitself␈αon␈αthe␈αattention␈αof␈αa␈αreader␈αwill
␈↓ α∧␈↓disappear␈αbecause␈αit␈αwill␈αbe␈αtoo␈αeasy␈αto␈αread␈αvia␈αa␈αprogram␈αthat␈αscreens␈αout␈αundesirable␈αmaterial.
␈↓ α∧␈↓However,␈αpeople␈αwill␈αstill␈αwant␈αto␈αknow␈αwhat␈αis␈αfor␈αsale␈αand␈αwill␈αstill␈αwant␈αto␈αsee␈αthe␈αseller's␈αstory
␈↓ α∧␈↓about␈α∞why␈α∞they␈α
should␈α∞buy␈α∞it.␈α
Probably,␈α∞␈↓↓Time␈↓␈α∞will␈α
still␈α∞be␈α∞able␈α
to␈α∞get␈α∞money␈α∞from␈α
advertisers;
␈↓ α∧␈↓many␈α
people␈αwill␈α
still␈α
want␈αto␈α
know␈αwhat␈α
is␈α
advertised␈αin␈α
␈↓↓Time,␈↓␈αbut␈α
those␈α
who␈αdon't␈α
want␈αto␈α
know
␈↓ α∧␈↓will be able to avoid it automatically.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|6␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTAnother␈αeffect␈αis␈αthe␈αpossibility␈αof␈αfrequent␈αrevisions␈αof␈αarticles␈αand␈αbooks.␈α An␈αauthor␈αcan
␈↓ α∧␈↓take␈α∃into␈α∃account␈α∃new␈α∃facts␈α∃or␈α∃other␈α∃people's␈α∃criticisms,␈α∃and␈α∃the␈α∃revision␈α∃will␈α∃take␈α∀effect
␈↓ α∧␈↓immediately.␈α∞ This␈α∂raises␈α∞1984ish␈α∞possibilities,␈α∂so␈α∞it␈α∂must␈α∞be␈α∞provided␈α∂that␈α∞old␈α∂versions␈α∞remain
␈↓ α∧␈↓available.␈α Those␈αwho␈αsuspect␈αthe␈αwhole␈αsystem␈αwill␈αkeep␈αtheir␈αown␈αcopies␈αof␈αfavorite␈αmaterial␈αin
␈↓ α∧␈↓their private files, on microfilm, or even on paper.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTPublic␈α∪controversy␈α∪can␈α∀be␈α∪carried␈α∪out␈α∀more␈α∪expeditiously␈α∪than␈α∀at␈α∪present.␈α∪ If␈α∀I␈α∪read
␈↓ α∧␈↓something␈α⊃that␈α∩seems␈α⊃controversial,␈α∩I␈α⊃can␈α⊃ask␈α∩the␈α⊃system␈α∩if␈α⊃anyone␈α⊃has␈α∩filed␈α⊃a␈α∩reply.␈α⊃ This,
␈↓ α∧␈↓together␈α
with␈αan␈α
author's␈αability␈α
to␈αrevise␈α
his␈αoriginal␈α
statement,␈αwill␈α
lead␈αpeople␈α
to␈α
converge␈αon
␈↓ α∧␈↓considered positions more quickly than at present even if they do not come to actual agreement.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThis␈α⊂ability␈α⊂to␈α⊂answer␈α⊂immediately␈α⊂and␈α⊂make␈α⊂that␈α⊂answer␈α⊂available␈α⊂immediately␈α⊂to␈α∂any
␈↓ α∧␈↓reader␈α
of␈α
the␈α
original␈α
statement␈α
will␈αimprove␈α
both␈α
politics␈α
and␈α
journalism.␈α
The␈αcontroversial␈α
style
␈↓ α∧␈↓of␈αboth␈αpublic␈αfigures␈αand␈αjournalists␈αis␈αprofoundly␈αcorrupted␈αby␈αtheir␈αpresent␈αability␈αto␈α␈↓↓hit-and-
␈↓ α∧␈↓↓run.␈↓␈α∞(Everyone␈α
notices␈α∞how␈α
much␈α∞more␈α
reasonable␈α∞politicians␈α
are␈α∞in␈α
small␈α∞groups␈α∞within␈α
which
␈↓ α∧␈↓dissent␈αcan␈αbe␈αexpressed).␈α When␈αthey␈αknow␈αtheir␈αreaders␈αwill␈αbe␈αable␈αto␈αsee␈αan␈αanswer␈αfrom␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓target␈αof␈αtheir␈αcriticism␈α
they␈αwill␈αhave␈αto␈α
put␈αtheir␈αarguments␈αin␈α
ways␈αthat␈αwill␈αwithstand␈α
criticism
␈↓ α∧␈↓rather than merely in ways that have the most immediate effect.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTFreedom␈α⊂of␈α∂information␈α⊂can␈α∂be␈α⊂made␈α∂more␈α⊂effective.␈α∂ The␈α⊂Freedom␈α∂of␈α⊂Information␈α∂Act
␈↓ α∧␈↓requires␈αthat␈αcertain␈αgovernment␈αrecords␈αbe␈αavailable␈αto␈αthe␈αpublic.␈α However,␈αeconomics␈αdictates
␈↓ α∧␈↓that␈α⊂this␈α⊂information␈α⊂is␈α∂available␈α⊂in␈α⊂reading␈α⊂rooms␈α⊂usually␈α∂in␈α⊂Washington.␈α⊂ So␈α⊂far,␈α⊂the␈α∂main
␈↓ α∧␈↓beneficiaries␈α
of␈α
the␈α∞act␈α
have␈α
been␈α
organizations␈α∞that␈α
can␈α
afford␈α
full␈α∞time␈α
researchers␈α
to␈α∞dig␈α
out
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
information␈α
and␈α
legal␈α
staffs␈α
experienced␈α
in␈α
putting␈α
judicial␈α
spokes␈α
in␈α
administrative␈α
wheels.
␈↓ α∧␈↓If␈α∩all␈α∩public␈α∩information␈α∩has␈α∩to␈α∪be␈α∩kept␈α∩in␈α∩publically␈α∩accessible␈α∩computer␈α∩systems,␈α∪then␈α∩the
␈↓ α∧␈↓information␈αwill␈αbe␈αnationally␈αavailable.␈α Even␈αbefore␈αhome␈αterminals␈αbecome␈αwidespread,␈αrather
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|7␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓small␈αorganizations␈αand␈αlibraries␈αwill␈αbe␈αable␈αto␈αafford␈αcomputer␈αterminals␈αand␈αsmall␈αamounts␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓long␈αdistance␈αconnect␈αtime.␈α Therefore,␈αwe␈αadvocate␈αthat␈α␈↓αit␈αshould␈αbe␈αrequired␈αimmediately␈αthat
␈↓ α∧␈↓αpublic␈α
information␈α
be␈α
stored␈α
in␈αremotely␈α
accessible␈α
computer␈α
systems␈↓.␈α
Organizations␈α
will␈αbe
␈↓ α∧␈↓able␈α∞to␈α∂acquire␈α∞suitable␈α∞terminals␈α∂in␈α∞months␈α∂while␈α∞it␈α∞will␈α∂take␈α∞a␈α∞few␈α∂years␈α∞for␈α∂the␈α∞government
␈↓ α∧␈↓agencies to implement putting the information in computer systems.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αfinancial␈αaspect␈αof␈αwriting␈αwould␈αpresumably␈αbe␈αas␈αfollows:␈αa␈αpiece␈αof␈αwritten␈αmaterial
␈↓ α∧␈↓has␈α∞a␈α∂price␈α∞for␈α∞reading␈α∂it.␈α∞ (This␈α∞price␈α∂may␈α∞be␈α∞zero␈α∂for␈α∞amateur␈α∞writing,␈α∂political␈α∞propaganda,
␈↓ α∧␈↓advertising,␈αand␈α
for␈αscientific␈α
journals).␈α The␈α
reader's␈αaccount␈α
is␈αdebited␈α
and␈αthe␈α
account␈αto␈α
which
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
material␈α
belongs␈αis␈α
automatically␈α
credited.␈α The␈α
reader␈α
will␈αhave␈α
the␈α
system␈αbalk␈α
at␈α
what␈αhe
␈↓ α∧␈↓considers overpriced material.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTTo␈αsummarize:␈αthe␈αinformation␈αutility␈αwill␈αpromote␈αintellectual␈αcompetition␈αby␈αreducing␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓price␈α
of␈α
entry,␈α
will␈α
permit␈α
readers␈α
to␈α
be␈α
selective,␈α
and␈α
will␈α
allow␈α
authors␈α
to␈α
revise␈α∞material␈α
until
␈↓ α∧␈↓they␈αare␈αsatisfied␈αthat␈αit␈αwithstands␈αcriticism␈αas␈αwell␈αas␈αit␈αever␈αwill.␈α This␈αshould␈αmake␈αintellectual
␈↓ α∧␈↓life more interesting.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∞object␈α
of␈α∞these␈α
remarks␈α∞is␈α
not␈α∞to␈α
make␈α∞a␈α
precise␈α∞prediction␈α
of␈α∞what␈α
will␈α∞happen␈α
but
␈↓ α∧␈↓rather␈α∪to␈α∪show␈α∪that␈α∩the␈α∪new␈α∪technology␈α∪will␈α∪support␈α∩a␈α∪much␈α∪wider␈α∪variety␈α∪of␈α∩institutional
␈↓ α∧␈↓arrangements than presently exists.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT2. Effects on commerce and bureaucracy
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αnew␈αinformation␈αsystem␈α
will␈αhave␈αa␈αprofound␈αeffect␈α
on␈αbuying␈αand␈αselling.␈α
Sellers␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓movies,␈αgroceries,␈αautomobiles,␈αplumbing␈αservices␈αand␈αcures␈αfor␈αbaldness␈αwill␈αfind␈αit␈α
advantageous
␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α∞list␈α∞their␈α∞wares␈α∞in␈α∞the␈α∞information␈α
system␈α∞together␈α∞with␈α∞current␈α∞prices␈α∞and␈α∞availability.␈α
The
␈↓ α∧␈↓user can place an order through the system as he can by telephone, but he can do much more:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.1.␈αIf␈αbills␈αare␈α"mailed"␈αthrough␈αthe␈αinformation␈αsystem␈αand␈αsaved␈αaway␈αin␈αthe␈α
user's
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|8␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓private␈α
files,␈α
when␈α
he␈α
is␈αready␈α
to␈α
pay,␈α
they␈α
can␈αbe␈α
presented␈α
one␈α
at␈α
a␈α
time␈αand␈α
he␈α
can␈α
type␈α
Y␈αor␈α
N
␈↓ α∧␈↓according␈αto␈αwhether␈αhe␈αwants␈αto␈αpay␈αthe␈α
bill␈αnow␈αand␈αthe␈αmoney␈αwill␈αbe␈αtransferred␈α
immediately
␈↓ α∧␈↓to the payee, and all necessary records will be kept.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.2.␈α⊃He␈α⊂can␈α⊃deal␈α⊂with␈α⊃federal,␈α⊂state,␈α⊃local␈α⊂and␈α⊃business␈α⊂bureaucracies␈α⊃through␈α⊂his
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminal.␈α
Thus␈α∞he␈α
can␈α∞get␈α
the␈α∞rules␈α
governing␈α∞dog␈α
licenses,␈α∞fill␈α
out␈α∞the␈α
forms,␈α∞and␈α
pay␈α∞for␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓license␈α
through␈αthe␈α
terminal.␈α
Incidentally,␈αinstead␈α
of␈αputting␈α
the␈α
same␈αinformation␈α
on␈α
dozens␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓forms␈α
each␈α
year,␈α
he␈α
can␈α
have␈α
common␈α
pieces␈α
of␈α
information␈α
like␈α
his␈α
address␈α
entered␈α
automatically;
␈↓ α∧␈↓i.e.␈α∞when␈α
the␈α∞automated␈α∞questionaire␈α
says␈α∞ADDRESS,␈α
he␈α∞types␈α∞OK,␈α
and␈α∞his␈α∞program␈α
transmits
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αaddress,␈αand␈αwhen␈αthe␈αquestionaire␈αtransmits␈α"MOTHER'S␈αMAIDEN␈αNAME",␈αhe␈αtypes␈α
NO,
␈↓ α∧␈↓and his program transmits "None of your business!".
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.3.␈α He␈αcan␈αcall␈αon␈αsomeone's␈αprogram␈αto␈αscan␈αthe␈αsellers␈αof␈αsports␈αcars␈α
and␈αpropose
␈↓ α∧␈↓what␈α∞it␈α
considers␈α∞the␈α
best␈α∞deal.␈α
This␈α∞program␈α
might␈α∞even␈α
negotiate␈α∞with␈α∞programs␈α
representing
␈↓ α∧␈↓the sellers.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.4.␈α He␈αcan␈α
tell␈αthe␈αsystem␈α
whether␈αlast␈αyear's␈α
cure␈αfor␈αbaldness␈α
worked␈αand␈αa␈α
get␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓summary␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀opinions␈α∀of␈α∀those␈α∀who␈α∀bothered␈α∀to␈α∀record␈α∀their␈α∀opinions␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀cure␈α∀he
␈↓ α∧␈↓contemplates trying now.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.5.␈αHe␈αcan␈αmake␈αan␈αairplane␈αor␈αhotel␈αreservation␈αby␈αinteracting␈αwith␈αa␈αprogram␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓airline␈αor␈αhotel␈αreservation␈αcompany␈αhas␈αwritten␈αto␈αtell␈αhim␈αwhat␈αis␈αavailable.␈αHe␈αneed␈αnot␈αsuffer
␈↓ α∧␈↓the delays you now get when you call an airline or travel agent at peak hours.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$2.6.␈α∂Individual␈α∂design␈α∂and␈α∂construction␈α∂services␈α∂can␈α∂be␈α∂offered␈α∂through␈α∂the␈α∂system
␈↓ α∧␈↓although␈α∩this␈α⊃requires␈α∩the␈α∩development␈α⊃of␈α∩computer␈α⊃controlled␈α∩manufacturing␈α∩techniques␈α⊃for
␈↓ α∧␈↓various␈α∂types␈α⊂of␈α∂article.␈α⊂The␈α∂idea␈α⊂is␈α∂that␈α∂automated␈α⊂design␈α∂programs␈α⊂can␈α∂produce␈α⊂designs␈α∂for
␈↓ α∧␈↓articles␈αmeeting␈αindividual␈αspecifications.␈α Either␈αby␈αhimself␈αor␈αin␈αconsultation␈αwith␈αan␈αexpert,␈αan
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ε|9␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓individual␈αwould␈αuse␈αthe␈αsystem␈αto␈αproduce␈αa␈αdesign␈αand␈αdisplay␈αhow␈αit␈αwould␈αlook␈αand␈αpossibly
␈↓ α∧␈↓how␈α∪it␈α∪would␈α∀perform.␈α∪ Candidates␈α∪for␈α∪individual␈α∀design␈α∪include␈α∪clothing,␈α∀furniture,␈α∪boats,
␈↓ α∧␈↓electronic␈αequipment,␈αhouses,␈αand␈αeven␈αcars.␈α The␈αsystem␈αwould␈αthen␈αproduce␈αthe␈αinstructions␈αfor
␈↓ α∧␈↓controlling␈α∞machine␈α
tools,␈α∞fabric␈α∞cutters,␈α
and␈α∞also␈α∞printed␈α
instructions␈α∞for␈α∞the␈α
hand␈α∞parts␈α∞of␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓operation.␈α In␈αgeneral,␈αit␈αshould␈αbe␈αpossible␈αto␈αmake␈αsingle␈αobjects␈αat␈αlittle␈αmore␈αcost␈αthan␈αpresent
␈↓ α∧␈↓mass␈α⊂produced␈α∂objects.␈α⊂ In␈α⊂some␈α∂cases,␈α⊂there␈α∂would␈α⊂even␈α⊂be␈α∂savings,␈α⊂because␈α⊂mass␈α∂production
␈↓ α∧␈↓requires␈α
estimates␈αof␈α
demand␈αthat␈α
are␈α
often␈αwrong␈α
resulting␈αin␈α
inventories␈αthat␈α
are␈α
expensive␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓sell or even have to be sold at a loss; the cost of this is made up by a general increase in prices.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTMany␈α
more␈α
useful␈α
services␈α
can␈α
be␈α
offered␈α
through␈α
the␈α
new␈α
information␈α
system␈α∞and␈α
again
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α⊃system␈α∩is␈α⊃conducive␈α∩to␈α⊃competition.␈α∩ Writing␈α⊃and␈α∩storing␈α⊃a␈α∩program␈α⊃and␈α∩announcing␈α⊃its
␈↓ α∧␈↓availability␈α∞can␈α∂be␈α∞a␈α∂very␈α∞low␈α∞capital␈α∂operation,␈α∞and␈α∂the␈α∞system␈α∞can␈α∂collect␈α∞whatever␈α∂price␈α∞has
␈↓ α∧␈↓been set for its use.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT3. Services that can be offered soon
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTWe␈αcould␈αgo␈αon␈αlisting␈αservices␈αthat␈αwould␈αcome␈αto␈αbe␈αoffered␈αin␈αa␈αfully␈α
developed␈αsystem,
␈↓ α∧␈↓but␈α∞now␈α∞we␈α∞shall␈α∞list␈α∞some␈α∞services␈α∞to␈α
smaller␈α∞groups␈α∞of␈α∞users␈α∞that␈α∞are␈α∞cheaper␈α∞to␈α∞provide␈α
and
␈↓ α∧␈↓which will help get the system started.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.1.␈α
Calculation␈α
and␈α
facilities␈α
for␈α
writing,␈α
running,␈α
and␈α
debugging␈α
computer␈α
programs.
␈↓ α∧␈↓This␈αdoesn't␈αinterest␈αthe␈αgeneral␈αpublic␈αmuch,␈αbut␈αit␈αis␈αthe␈αpresent␈αbread␈αand␈αbutter␈αof␈α
the␈αtime-
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing␈αservice␈αbureaus␈αthat␈αwill␈αgrow␈αinto␈αthe␈αnew␈αinformation␈αsystem.␈α At␈αpresent,␈αthese␈αservice
␈↓ α∧␈↓bureaus␈α
offer␈α
very␈α
convenient␈αway␈α
of␈α
doing␈α
small␈αscientific␈α
and␈α
engineering␈α
calculations,␈α
but␈αdo
␈↓ α∧␈↓not␈α
offer␈αreasonable␈α
prices␈α
for␈αbig␈α
computations,␈α
and␈αare␈α
only␈α
beginning␈αto␈α
offer␈α
useful␈αservices␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓business firms.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.2.␈α
Messages.␈α
The␈α
cost␈α
of␈α
mail␈α
service␈α
is␈α
going␈α
steadily␈α
up␈α
and␈α
its␈α
quality␈α
is␈α
going
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu10␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓steadily␈αdown.␈α
Already␈αa␈αletter␈α
costs␈αmore␈αto␈α
send␈αthan␈αa␈α
local␈αtelephone␈αcall.␈α
The␈αability␈αto␈α
send
␈↓ α∧␈↓a␈α
written␈α
message␈α
that␈α
will␈α
be␈αseen␈α
the␈α
next␈α
time␈α
a␈α
user␈αsits␈α
down␈α
at␈α
his␈α
computer␈α
terminal␈αhas
␈↓ α∧␈↓proved␈αvery␈α
convenient␈αto␈α
users␈αof␈α
the␈αDefense␈αDepartment␈α
sponsored␈αARPA␈α
net.␈α Already,␈α
if␈αI
␈↓ α∧␈↓type␈α
"MAIL␈αMINSKY%MIT-AI␈α
When␈αare␈α
you␈α
coming␈αto␈α
California␈αnext?",␈α
the␈α
message␈α"When
␈↓ α∧␈↓are␈α
you␈α
coming␈α
to␈α
California␈α
next?"␈α
will␈α
be␈α
received␈α
by␈α
Minsky␈α
at␈α
M.I.T.␈α
the␈α
next␈α
time␈α
he␈αuses␈α
his
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminal.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.3.␈α∩ Editing.␈α∩ Anyone␈α∩who␈α∩writes␈α∩(writers,␈α∩journalists,␈α∩scientists,␈α∪advertising␈α∩men,
␈↓ α∧␈↓engineers␈αand␈αstudents)␈αwill␈αbenefit␈αfrom␈αusing␈αan␈αeditor␈αprogram.␈α It␈αallows␈αeasy␈αrevision,␈αcan␈αbe
␈↓ α∧␈↓made␈α
to␈α
check␈α
spelling,␈α
grammar,␈α
and␈α
punctuation,␈α
and␈α
will␈α
produce␈α
justified␈α
or␈α
other␈α
forms␈α
of
␈↓ α∧␈↓elegant␈α⊗output␈α⊗and␈α⊗also␈α∃indexes.␈α⊗ This␈α⊗paper␈α⊗was␈α∃edited␈α⊗on␈α⊗the␈α⊗computer␈α⊗including␈α∃the
␈↓ α∧␈↓specification␈α⊃of␈α⊃␈↓αprinting␈↓␈α⊃␈↓↓in␈↓␈α∩␈↓↓several␈↓␈α⊃␈↓¬type␈α⊃fonts␈↓.␈α⊃ The␈α⊃document␈α∩is␈α⊃stored␈α⊃on␈α⊃disk␈α∩at␈α⊃the
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford␈α
Artificial␈α∞Intelligence␈α
Laboratory,␈α∞and␈α
any␈α∞user␈α
of␈α
the␈α∞ARPA␈α
net␈α∞can␈α
access␈α∞the␈α
latest
␈↓ α∧␈↓version using the name HOTER.ESS[W76,JMC]@SU-AI.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.4.␈α
Filing.␈α
Keeping␈α
personal␈α
files␈α
in␈αthe␈α
computer␈α
has␈α
great␈α
advantages,␈α
but␈αsome␈α
of
␈↓ α∧␈↓them␈α
must␈α
await␈α
the␈α
ability␈α
to␈α
enter␈αother␈α
people's␈α
documents␈α
without␈α
retyping␈α
them.␈α
If␈αthey␈α
have
␈↓ α∧␈↓been␈αprepared␈αin␈αa␈αcomputer␈αreadable␈αform,␈αit␈α
is␈αeasy,␈αbut␈αsomeday␈αa␈αsuitable␈αpage␈αreader␈αwill␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓available.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$3.5.␈α
Education.␈α
Computer␈α
aided␈α
instruction␈α
(CAI)␈α
has␈α
advanced␈α
to␈α
the␈α
point␈α
that␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓number␈αof␈αcourses␈αor␈αaids␈α
to␈αtraditional␈αcourses␈αhave␈αbeen␈α
developed␈αand␈αhave␈αbeen␈αshown␈αto␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓useful.␈α
The␈α
main␈α
obstacle␈α∞to␈α
the␈α
widespread␈α
use␈α
of␈α∞CAI␈α
is␈α
economic,␈α
but␈α
new␈α∞developments␈α
in
␈↓ α∧␈↓display␈α⊃technology␈α⊃and␈α⊃communications␈α⊃give␈α⊂a␈α⊃reasonable␈α⊃probability␈α⊃of␈α⊃cost-effective␈α⊂systems
␈↓ α∧␈↓within␈αthis␈αdecade.␈α There␈α
is␈αno␈αspecial␈αproblem␈α
in␈αhaving␈αthese␈αsystems␈α
available␈αin␈αthe␈αhome␈α
as
␈↓ α∧␈↓well␈α∂as␈α∞at␈α∂school.␈α∞ This␈α∂would␈α∂be␈α∞aided␈α∂by␈α∞standardizing␈α∂course␈α∞writing␈α∂languages.␈α∂ Again,␈α∞we
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu11␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓should␈α
try␈α
to␈α
stimulate␈α
competition␈α
by␈α
encouraging␈α
the␈α
offering␈α
of␈α
courses␈α
in␈α∞particular␈α
subjects
␈↓ α∧␈↓independent of the schools.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∞development␈α∞of␈α∞information␈α
utilities␈α∞is␈α∞probably␈α∞inevitable␈α
(unless␈α∞it␈α∞is␈α∞forbidden␈α
by
␈↓ α∧␈↓law)␈α⊃as␈α⊃soon␈α⊂as␈α⊃costs␈α⊃come␈α⊂down␈α⊃to␈α⊃the␈α⊂point␈α⊃where␈α⊃it␈α⊂is␈α⊃profitable␈α⊃for␈α⊃time-sharing␈α⊂service
␈↓ α∧␈↓bureaus␈αto␈αoffer␈αservices␈αto␈αindividuals.␈α However,␈αfavorable␈αpolicies␈αwill␈αbring␈αthis␈αabout␈αsooner
␈↓ α∧␈↓and will make the effects better.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTBetween␈α
us␈αand␈α
the␈αhome␈α
information␈αsystem␈α
lie␈α
a␈αnumber␈α
of␈αproblems,␈α
some␈αin␈α
developing
␈↓ α∧␈↓suitable␈α∀low␈α∃cost␈α∀terminals,␈α∀some␈α∃in␈α∀programming␈α∀technology␈α∃of␈α∀time-sharing,␈α∀some␈α∃in␈α∀the
␈↓ α∧␈↓economics␈α⊂and␈α⊂politics␈α⊂of␈α⊂communication␈α⊂systems,␈α⊂and␈α∂some␈α⊂in␈α⊂the␈α⊂attitude␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂public␈α∂and
␈↓ α∧␈↓government towards innovation. In the following sections we shall discuss these problems.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ ∧␈HOW WE GET THERE FROM HERE
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT1. Terminals
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
quality␈αand␈α
price␈α
of␈αdisplay␈α
consoles␈αis␈α
rapidly␈α
improving.␈αAt␈α
present,␈αone␈α
can␈α
add␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓display␈α
console␈α
with␈αkeyboard␈α
to␈α
our␈αlaboratory␈α
system␈α
for␈αabout␈α
$500,␈α
and␈αto␈α
add␈α
another␈αport
␈↓ α∧␈↓on␈α
the␈α
system␈α
so␈α
that␈α
the␈α
number␈α
of␈α∞consoles␈α
active␈α
at␈α
one␈α
time␈α
is␈α
increased␈α
by␈α
one␈α∞costs␈α
about
␈↓ α∧␈↓$1000.␈α A␈αreasonable␈αdisplay␈αconsole␈αthat␈αcan␈αbe␈αlocated␈αat␈αthe␈αend␈αof␈αa␈αtelephone␈αline␈αnow␈αcosts
␈↓ α∧␈↓about␈α⊂$3,000.␈α⊂These␈α⊂consoles␈α⊂are␈α⊂adequate␈α⊃for␈α⊂any␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂services␈α⊂mentioned␈α⊂in␈α⊃the␈α⊂previous
␈↓ α∧␈↓sections,␈αalthough␈αfor␈αreading␈αpurposes,␈αit␈αwould␈αbe␈αdesirable␈αto␈αbe␈αable␈αto␈αdisplay␈αmore␈αthan␈α35
␈↓ α∧␈↓typed lines at a time.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTIn␈α∞my␈α∞opinion,␈α∞the␈α∞cost␈α
of␈α∞a␈α∞display␈α∞terminal␈α∞adequate␈α
for␈α∞extensive␈α∞reading␈α∞that␈α∞can␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓located␈αat␈αthe␈αend␈αof␈αa␈αtelephone␈αline␈αwill␈αbe␈αin␈αthe␈α$500␈αto␈α$1000␈αrange␈αby␈α1980␈αeven␈αwithout␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓market␈αof␈αthe␈αsize␈αof␈αthe␈αpotential␈αhome␈αterminal␈αmarket.␈α The␈αbusiness,␈αengineering,␈αscience,␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓government markets will be large enough and price sensitive enough to bring this about.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu12␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT2. Communications
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTFacilities␈αfor␈αdigital␈α
communications␈αare␈αgrowing␈α
rapidly␈αbut␈αin␈α
a␈αdisorderly␈αway␈αbecause␈α
of
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α∂multiplicity␈α∞of␈α∂requirements␈α∂of␈α∞the␈α∂different␈α∂applications.␈α∞ Thus␈α∂credit␈α∂verification␈α∞requires
␈↓ α∧␈↓very␈αlow␈α
cost␈αshort␈α
communications␈αwith␈α
turn␈αaround␈αtimes␈α
of␈αseconds.␈α
Other␈αuses␈α
require␈αvery
␈↓ α∧␈↓low␈α
cost␈α
per␈α∞bit␈α
but␈α
can␈α
stand␈α∞delays␈α
of␈α
minutes␈α
and␈α∞hence␈α
are␈α
candidates␈α
for␈α∞low␈α
performance
␈↓ α∧␈↓store␈α
and␈αforward␈α
systems.␈α
Terminal␈αsystems␈α
need␈αlong␈α
holding␈α
times,␈αshort␈α
response␈α
times,␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓much higher transmission rates from computer to user than in the other direction.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈αspeeds␈α
of␈αtransmission␈αover␈α
present␈αunconditioned␈αvoice␈α
grade␈αcircuits␈αare␈α
lower␈αthan
␈↓ α∧␈↓one␈αwould␈α
like␈αfor␈α
reading.␈α 1200␈α
bits␈αper␈α
second␈αtakes␈α
20␈αseconds␈α
to␈αtransmit␈α
a␈αtyped␈α
page␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓four␈α
times␈α
that␈α
for␈α
a␈α
page␈α
of␈α
a␈α
dictionary.␈α
9600␈α
bits␈α
per␈α
second␈α
is␈α
obtained␈α
over␈αconditioned␈α
voice
␈↓ α∧␈↓grade␈αlines,␈αand␈αthis␈αmay␈αbe␈αadequate.␈α Another␈αposibility␈αis␈αthe␈αtransmission␈αtechnology␈αplanned
␈↓ α∧␈↓for␈αthe␈αPicturephone␈αservice,␈αbut␈αthe␈αcost␈αof␈αthis␈αservice␈αfor␈αlong␈αholding␈αtimes␈αis␈αnot␈αclear.␈α The
␈↓ α∧␈↓most␈αeconomical␈αsystem␈α
might␈αbe␈αa␈αspecially␈α
designed␈αstore␈αand␈α
forward␈αsystem␈αconfigured␈αto␈α
give
␈↓ α∧␈↓fast turn around for short messages.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT3. Computer technology
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTComputer␈α∩technology␈α∩can␈α∩now␈α∩offer␈α∩the␈α∩services␈α∩required␈α∩for␈α∩the␈α∩home␈α∩terminal␈α∩at␈α∩a
␈↓ α∧␈↓reasonable␈α∀cost,␈α∀provided␈α∀computer␈α∃configurations␈α∀are␈α∀optimized␈α∀for␈α∀the␈α∃purpose,␈α∀provided
␈↓ α∧␈↓reasonable␈α∞load␈α∞factors␈α∞can␈α∂be␈α∞obtained,␈α∞and␈α∞provided␈α∂there␈α∞are␈α∞reasonable␈α∞economies␈α∂of␈α∞scale.
␈↓ α∧␈↓Unfortunately,␈α
IBM␈α
computers␈α
are␈α
organized␈α
in␈α
such␈αa␈α
way␈α
that␈α
time␈α
sharing␈α
is␈α
very␈αexpensive
␈↓ α∧␈↓because␈αof␈αtheir␈αinterrupt␈αstructure,␈αtheir␈αexpensive␈αterminal␈αmultiplexors,␈αand␈αtheir␈αdedication␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α∀archaic␈α∀half␈α∀duplex␈α∀method␈α∀of␈α∀communication,␈α∀and␈α∀their␈α∀giant,␈α∀inefficient␈α∃and␈α∀almost
␈↓ α∧␈↓unchangable␈αoperating␈αsystems.␈α The␈αother␈αmajor␈αcomputer␈αmanufacturers␈αsuch␈αas␈αCDC,␈αGeneral
␈↓ α∧␈↓Electric,␈αand␈α
Univac␈αare␈α
not␈αin␈α
much␈αbetter␈α
shape␈αsince␈α
they␈αoffer␈α
for␈αtime-sharing,␈αmachines␈α
that
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu13␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓were␈α∩optimized␈α∪for␈α∩other␈α∪purposes.␈α∩ Smaller␈α∪companies␈α∩like␈α∪DEC␈α∩are␈α∪in␈α∩a␈α∪somewhat␈α∩better
␈↓ α∧␈↓position.␈α However,␈αnone␈αof␈αthese␈αdifficulties␈αare␈αpermanent,␈αand␈αbetter␈αorganized␈αcomputers␈αmay
␈↓ α∧␈↓be␈α∂expected␈α∂once␈α∂the␈α⊂factors␈α∂in␈α∂computer␈α∂design␈α∂that␈α⊂make␈α∂for␈α∂good␈α∂cost-performance␈α⊂in␈α∂time
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing␈αbecome␈αclearer␈αto␈α
the␈αmanufacturers.␈α (The␈αnon-technical␈α
reader␈αis␈αwarned␈αthat␈αthe␈α
above
␈↓ α∧␈↓views are most likely controversial).
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTPresent␈αmagnetic␈αdisk␈αstorage␈αunits␈αare␈αcost-effective␈αfor␈αinformation␈αutilities␈αserving␈αhome
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminals.␈α⊂ A␈α⊃cheap␈α⊂imitation␈α⊂of␈α⊃the␈α⊂IBM␈α⊂3330/11␈α⊃disk␈α⊂costs␈α⊂about␈α⊃$16.00␈α⊂at␈α⊂the␈α⊃margin␈α⊂for
␈↓ α∧␈↓storing␈αa␈αbook␈α
using␈αtwo-to-one␈αinformation␈α
compression.␈α This␈αis␈αfine␈α
for␈αpersonal␈αfiles␈α
and␈αfor
␈↓ α∧␈↓libraries␈αprovided␈αwe␈αcan␈αmake␈αone␈αon-line␈αcopy␈αreplace␈αseveral␈αpaper␈αcopies.␈α This␈αis␈αstill␈αrather
␈↓ α∧␈↓expensive for private copies of books.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTDisk␈α
files␈αare␈α
continuing␈α
to␈αincrease␈α
in␈αcost-effectiveness,␈α
and␈α
much␈αlarger␈α
storage␈αmedia␈α
are
␈↓ α∧␈↓being promoted.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT4. Computer programming
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
basic␈α
technology␈α
of␈α
time-sharing␈α
is␈α
reasonably␈α
well␈α
developed,␈α
and␈α
cost-effective␈α
systems
␈↓ α∧␈↓have␈α∂been␈α∂written,␈α∂but␈α∂there␈α∂is␈α∂still␈α∂a␈α∂lot␈α∂of␈α∂chasing␈α∂of␈α∂will-o'-the-wisps,␈α∂and␈α∂bad␈α∞time-sharing
␈↓ α∧␈↓systems␈αare␈αoften␈αproduced␈αby␈αotherwise␈αcompetent␈αorganizations.␈α The␈αcosts␈αof␈αthe␈αprogramming
␈↓ α∧␈↓to␈α∞offer␈α∞the␈α∞services␈α∞mentioned␈α
in␈α∞the␈α∞first␈α∞part␈α∞of␈α∞this␈α
paper␈α∞can␈α∞be␈α∞much␈α∞reduced␈α∞by␈α
further
␈↓ α∧␈↓advances in programming such as:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$4.1.␈α
The␈α
interactive␈α
and␈α
file␈α∞reference␈α
aspects␈α
of␈α
programming␈α
languages␈α∞and␈α
time-
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing␈αsystems␈α
need␈αto␈α
be␈αstandardized␈α
so␈αthat␈α
an␈αinteractive␈α
system␈αwritten␈α
in␈αone␈α
system␈αcan␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓used␈αin␈αanother␈αthat␈αuses␈αdifferent␈αhardware␈αand␈αa␈αdifferent␈αtime␈αsharing␈αsystem.␈αWithout␈αthis␈αit
␈↓ α∧␈↓will␈α⊂be␈α⊂very␈α∂expensive␈α⊂for␈α⊂new␈α⊂user␈α∂services␈α⊂to␈α⊂get␈α⊂large␈α∂markets␈α⊂unless␈α⊂some␈α⊂particular␈α∂time
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing system gets a monopoly.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu14␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$4.2.␈α∂ A␈α∂system␈α∞needs␈α∂to␈α∂be␈α∂developed␈α∞for␈α∂representing␈α∂text␈α∞in␈α∂a␈α∂computer␈α∂that␈α∞will
␈↓ α∧␈↓include␈α⊂the␈α⊂full␈α⊂variety␈α⊂of␈α⊂alphabets,␈α⊂type␈α⊂fonts␈α⊂and␈α⊂character␈α⊂sizes␈α⊂and␈α⊂also␈α⊂be␈α⊃adaptable␈α⊂to
␈↓ α∧␈↓diagrams,␈α∞drawings␈α∂and␈α∞photographs.␈α∞ The␈α∂consoles␈α∞also␈α∞have␈α∂to␈α∞be␈α∞adapted␈α∂to␈α∞this␈α∂variety␈α∞of
␈↓ α∧␈↓styles.␈α∞ This␈α
is␈α∞an␈α
ultimate␈α∞requirement;␈α
much␈α∞can␈α∞be␈α
done␈α∞with␈α
texts␈α∞that␈α
are␈α∞just␈α∞regarded␈α
as
␈↓ α∧␈↓sequences of latin letters.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$4.3. The biggest task, however, is the application programming itself.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT5. Commercial organization
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTFortunately,␈α⊂time-sharing␈α⊂services␈α⊂are␈α⊂not␈α∂a␈α⊂natural␈α⊂monopoly.␈α⊂ Communication␈α⊂is␈α∂cheap
␈↓ α∧␈↓enough␈α
for␈α
teletype␈αbased␈α
time-sharing␈α
so␈αthat␈α
with␈α
local␈αmultiplexors,␈α
time-sharing␈α
bureaus␈αcan
␈↓ α∧␈↓compete␈α∩all␈α∩over␈α⊃the␈α∩United␈α∩States.␈α⊃ In␈α∩principal,␈α∩it␈α⊃should␈α∩be␈α∩possible␈α⊃to␈α∩have␈α∩world␈α⊃wide
␈↓ α∧␈↓competition.␈α∞ The␈α∂major␈α∞developments␈α∂that␈α∞may␈α∂reduce␈α∞competition␈α∂are␈α∞(i)␈α∂if␈α∞the␈α∂terminals␈α∞are
␈↓ α∧␈↓supplied␈α
by␈α
the␈α
information␈α
utility␈α
and␈α
cannot␈αbe␈α
used␈α
with␈α
that␈α
utility's␈α
competitors;␈α
and␈α
(ii)␈αif
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αutility␈αonly␈αallows␈αits␈αsubscribers␈αto␈αuse␈αits␈αown␈αprograms␈αand␈αdata␈αfiles.␈α Therefore,␈αthe␈αusers
␈↓ α∧␈↓should␈α
own␈α∞their␈α
own␈α∞terminals,␈α
and␈α∞the␈α
ownership␈α∞of␈α
programs␈α∞performing␈α
services␈α∞should␈α
be
␈↓ α∧␈↓separate␈α
from␈α
the␈α
ownership␈α
of␈α
the␈α
service␈α
bureaus␈α
themselves.␈α
It␈α
is␈α
important␈α
to␈α∞have␈α
enough
␈↓ α∧␈↓compatibility␈α
between␈α
different␈α
time-sharing␈α
systems␈α
so␈αthat␈α
the␈α
owner␈α
of␈α
a␈α
service␈α
program␈αcan
␈↓ α∧␈↓provide␈α
it␈α
on␈α
a␈α
number␈α
of␈α
machines.␈α
It␈α
is␈α
also␈α
important␈α
that␈α
important␈α
files␈α
be␈α
accessible␈α
and
␈↓ α∧␈↓modifiable␈α⊂with␈α⊂suitable␈α⊂protections␈α⊂by␈α⊂actions␈α⊂initiated␈α⊂on␈α⊂other␈α⊂machines␈α⊂than␈α⊂the␈α⊂one␈α⊂that
␈↓ α∧␈↓maintains the file.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT6. Needs for research and development
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α
hardware␈α
required␈α∞for␈α
home␈α
consoles␈α∞will␈α
be␈α
too␈α∞expensive␈α
for␈α
extensive␈α∞systems␈α
for
␈↓ α∧␈↓probably␈α
another␈α
five␈α
years.␈α
In␈α
the␈α
meantime,␈α
research␈α
and␈α
development␈α
should␈α
be␈αundertaken␈α
in
␈↓ α∧␈↓the following areas:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu15␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$6.1. Standardization of the interfaces of time-sharing systems and their languages.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$6.2.␈α Experimentation␈αwith␈αservices.␈α At␈αpresent,␈αit␈αis␈αvery␈αdifficult␈αto␈αget␈αsupport␈αfor
␈↓ α∧␈↓development␈α∞of␈α∞generally␈α∞useful␈α∞services␈α∞unless␈α∞either␈α∞it␈α∞can␈α∞be␈α∞claimed␈α∞that␈α∞disaster␈α∞will␈α∞result
␈↓ α∧␈↓from␈α
failure␈α
to␈αsupport␈α
the␈α
activity␈αor␈α
that␈α
the␈αsupporting␈α
organization␈α
will␈αitself␈α
make␈α
a␈αprofit.
␈↓ α∧␈↓This␈αpolitical␈αfact␈αis␈αone␈αof␈αthe␈αreasons␈αfor␈αthe␈αconcentration␈αon␈αmilitary␈αtechnology␈αin␈αthe␈αrecent
␈↓ α∧␈↓past.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$6.3.␈α∩Research␈α⊃aimed␈α∩at␈α⊃devising␈α∩ways␈α∩of␈α⊃co-ordinating␈α∩the␈α⊃great␈α∩variety␈α∩of␈α⊃time-
␈↓ α∧␈↓sharing␈α∂services␈α∂into␈α∞a␈α∂mutually␈α∂communicating␈α∞network.␈α∂ Neither␈α∂sufficient␈α∂understanding␈α∞nor
␈↓ α∧␈↓sufficient␈α⊃political␈α⊃or␈α⊃commercial␈α⊃force␈α∩is␈α⊃available␈α⊃to␈α⊃cause␈α⊃the␈α⊃development␈α∩of␈α⊃time-sharing
␈↓ α∧␈↓services␈α
to␈α∞proceed␈α
according␈α∞to␈α
a␈α∞unified␈α
plan.␈α∞ Nevertheless,␈α
computers␈α∞are␈α
flexible␈α∞enough␈α
so
␈↓ α∧␈↓that␈α∞originally␈α∞incompatible␈α∞systems␈α
can␈α∞be␈α∞made␈α∞to␈α
communicate␈α∞and␈α∞use␈α∞each␈α∞other's␈α
services.
␈↓ α∧␈↓Experiments␈α
with␈α
the␈α
ARPA␈α∞network␈α
that␈α
provides␈α
communication␈α
among␈α∞Defense␈α
Department
␈↓ α∧␈↓sponsored research computers are providing useful information.
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ αT7. Social issues
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.1.␈α→Government␈α→created␈α→monopoly␈α~-␈α→most␈α→likely␈α→inadvertent.␈α~ If␈α→government
␈↓ α∧␈↓regulations␈α
remain␈αas␈α
they␈αare␈α
in␈αMay␈α
1976,␈αhome␈α
terminals␈αcan␈α
develop␈αin␈α
a␈α
freely␈αcompetitive
␈↓ α∧␈↓manner.␈α The␈αfamous␈αCarterphone␈αdecision␈αand␈αits␈αextensions␈αpermitting␈αconnection␈αof␈αarbitrary
␈↓ α∧␈↓devices␈αmeeting␈αnon-interference␈αstandards␈αto␈αthe␈αtelephone␈αsystem␈αis␈αexactly␈αwhat␈αis␈αrequired␈αfor
␈↓ α∧␈↓home␈α∂terminals.␈α∂ However,␈α∂there␈α∂are␈α∂several␈α∂dangers.␈α∂ First␈α∂the␈α∂new␈α⊂communication␈α∂companies
␈↓ α∧␈↓want␈αto␈αget␈αa␈αshare␈αof␈αthe␈αdata␈αcommunication␈αbusiness␈αfrom␈αAT&T,␈αand␈αthis␈αmay␈αwell␈αtake␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓form␈α∞of␈α∂separating␈α∞a␈α∂share␈α∞of␈α∞the␈α∂present␈α∞market␈α∂legally,␈α∞and␈α∞prescribing␈α∂who␈α∞may␈α∂offer␈α∞what
␈↓ α∧␈↓services.␈α
Since␈α
home␈α∞terminal␈α
services␈α
don't␈α∞exist␈α
yet,␈α
it␈α∞may␈α
turn␈α
out␈α∞that␈α
no-one␈α
is␈α∞allowed␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓offer␈α⊃the␈α⊃communications␈α⊃they␈α⊃require.␈α⊃ Second,␈α∩some␈α⊃planners␈α⊃have␈α⊃a␈α⊃limited␈α⊃view␈α∩of␈α⊃what
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu16␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓services␈αare␈αpossible,␈αand␈αwant␈αto␈αprovide␈αthem␈α
through␈αa␈αsystem␈αbased␈αon␈αCATV␈αwhich␈αhas␈α
the
␈↓ α∧␈↓side␈α
effect␈αof␈α
making␈αhome␈α
terminals␈αa␈α
local␈αmonopoly␈α
of␈αthe␈α
CATV␈αoperator.␈α
Thirdly,␈αthere␈α
are
␈↓ α∧␈↓proposals␈α(␈↓↓New␈α
York␈αTimes␈↓␈αeditorial␈α
of␈αApril␈α
,␈α1976),␈αto␈α
make␈αelectronic␈αmail␈α
a␈αmonopoly␈α
of␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓Postal␈α⊃Service.␈α⊃ This␈α⊃is␈α⊃the␈α⊃most␈α⊃pernicious␈α⊃of␈α⊃all,␈α⊃because␈α⊃it␈α⊃requires␈α⊃splitting␈α⊃off␈α⊃a␈α⊃service
␈↓ α∧␈↓analogous␈α∂to␈α∂present␈α⊂mail␈α∂service␈α∂and␈α∂preventing␈α⊂anyone␈α∂except␈α∂the␈α∂assigned␈α⊂monopolist␈α∂from
␈↓ α∧␈↓offering any service that includes it.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTNot␈αeveryone␈αwill␈αagree␈αwith␈αthe␈αpicture␈αof␈αhome␈αterminal␈αservices␈αgiven␈αin␈αthis␈αpaper,␈αbut
␈↓ α∧␈↓I␈α∀hope␈α∀we␈α∀can␈α∀agree␈α∀that␈α∀this␈α∃and␈α∀similar␈α∀ideas␈α∀shouldn't␈α∀be␈α∀precluded␈α∀by␈α∃creating␈α∀new
␈↓ α∧␈↓monopolies.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.2.␈α∂Who␈α∞will␈α∂get␈α∞it␈α∂first?␈α∞ I␈α∂think␈α∞it␈α∂must␈α∞be␈α∂accepted␈α∞that␈α∂the␈α∞first␈α∂subscribers␈α∞of
␈↓ α∧␈↓information␈α∀utilities␈α∀will␈α∃be␈α∀well-to-do␈α∀people␈α∀with␈α∃particular␈α∀inclinations␈α∀in␈α∃that␈α∀direction.
␈↓ α∧␈↓Fortunately,␈α
a␈α
telephone␈α
based␈α
system␈α
doesn't␈α
need␈α
a␈α
large␈α
fraction␈α
of␈α
the␈α
households␈α
in␈α
an␈α
area␈α
as
␈↓ α∧␈↓subscribers␈α
in␈α
order␈αto␈α
make␈α
money.␈α
Moreover,␈αthe␈α
costs␈α
of␈α
the␈αservices␈α
in␈α
a␈α
mature␈αtechnology
␈↓ α∧␈↓will␈α
be␈α
low␈α∞enough␈α
so␈α
that␈α∞after␈α
the␈α
rich␈α
have␈α∞paid␈α
the␈α
start-up␈α∞costs,␈α
everyone␈α
at␈α∞an␈α
economic
␈↓ α∧␈↓level to afford a car will also be able to afford home terminal service.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.3.␈αPrivacy␈αand␈αsecurity.␈α It␈αis␈αeasy␈αto␈αhave␈αfantasies␈αabout␈αthe␈αgovernment␈αor␈αother
␈↓ α∧␈↓large␈α∂organizations␈α∂establishing␈α∂a␈α∂dictatorship␈α⊂through␈α∂their␈α∂access␈α∂to␈α∂everyone's␈α⊂personal␈α∂data
␈↓ α∧␈↓and␈α∩people␈α∩doing␈α⊃each␈α∩other␈α∩in␈α⊃with␈α∩information␈α∩gained␈α⊃from␈α∩computerized␈α∩spying.␈α∩ In␈α⊃my
␈↓ α∧␈↓opinion,␈αthe␈αsource␈αof␈αdictatorship␈αisn't␈αinformation␈αbut␈αa␈αmonopoly␈αon␈αforce␈αand␈αthe␈αwill␈α
to␈αuse
␈↓ α∧␈↓it.␈α∂ In␈α∞time-sharing␈α∂systems␈α∞in␈α∂which␈α∂security␈α∞measures␈α∂have␈α∞been␈α∂installed␈α∞only␈α∂in␈α∂response␈α∞to
␈↓ α∧␈↓actual misuse, rather little has been required.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTHowever,␈αmuch␈αhigher␈αdegrees␈αof␈αprivacy␈αand␈αsecurity␈αcan␈αbe␈αachieved␈αwith␈αcomputerized
␈↓ α∧␈↓systems␈α⊂than␈α⊂with␈α⊂manual␈α⊂information␈α⊂systems.␈α⊂ People␈α⊂can␈α⊂encrypt␈α⊂their␈α⊃private␈α⊂information,
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu17␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓each␈α
use␈αof␈α
a␈α
file␈αcontaining␈α
personal␈α
data␈αcan␈α
be␈α
recorded␈αin␈α
the␈α
file,␈αand␈α
the␈α
systems␈αthat␈α
ensure
␈↓ α∧␈↓all this can be subject to audit by any organization concerned with protecting privacy.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.4.␈α∃Who␈α∃will␈α∀convert␈α∃the␈α∃existing␈α∃literature?␈α∀ Some␈α∃writings␈α∃are␈α∃have␈α∀current
␈↓ α∧␈↓copyrights,␈αand␈αsome␈αare␈αin␈α
the␈αpublic␈αdomain.␈α It␈αwould␈α
seem␈αthat␈αcopyright␈αowners␈αshould␈α
have
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α∂option␈α∞of␈α∂converting␈α∞their␈α∂property␈α∂and␈α∞owning␈α∂the␈α∞result.␈α∂ Material␈α∞in␈α∂the␈α∂public␈α∞domain
␈↓ α∧␈↓could␈αeither␈αbe␈αconverted␈αby␈αthe␈αgovernment␈αor␈αby␈αwhoever␈αthinks␈αthe␈αpublic␈αwill␈αpay␈αto␈αlook␈αat
␈↓ α∧␈↓what␈α∩he␈α∩chooses␈α∩to␈α∪convert.␈α∩ I␈α∩will␈α∩confess␈α∩a␈α∪preference␈α∩for␈α∩a␈α∩systematic␈α∩project␈α∪to␈α∩convert
␈↓ α∧␈↓everything.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.5.␈α⊂What␈α⊂about␈α⊂unauthorized␈α∂copying?␈α⊂ It␈α⊂is␈α⊂very␈α∂difficult␈α⊂even␈α⊂today␈α⊂to␈α∂prevent
␈↓ α∧␈↓unauthorized␈αcopying␈α
of␈αvery␈α
high␈αpriced␈α
material.␈α Below␈αa␈α
certain␈αlevel␈α
of␈αprice,␈α
it␈αis␈αcheaper␈α
to
␈↓ α∧␈↓pay␈α
the␈αprice␈α
of␈αaccess␈α
each␈αtime␈α
a␈αdocument␈α
is␈αread␈α
than␈αto␈α
pay␈αthe␈α
storage␈αcost␈α
of␈αmaintaining␈α
a
␈↓ α∧␈↓copy.␈α Eventually␈α
the␈αcost␈α
of␈αstorage␈αcompared␈α
to␈αthe␈α
socially␈αdesirable␈α
rewards␈αof␈αauthorship␈α
may
␈↓ α∧␈↓get␈α
so␈α
small␈αthat␈α
storing␈α
unauthorized␈αcopies␈α
may␈α
become␈α
profitable.␈α The␈α
limiting␈α
situation␈αis␈α
one
␈↓ α∧␈↓in␈α∞which␈α∞authors␈α∞have␈α∞to␈α∞be␈α∞paid␈α∞like␈α
scientists␈α∞for␈α∞their␈α∞work␈α∞in␈α∞producing␈α∞the␈α∞material␈α
after
␈↓ α∧␈↓which␈αthe␈αresults␈αare␈αfreely␈αdistributed.␈α I␈αthink␈αthis␈αday␈αshould␈αbe␈αpostponed␈αas␈αlong␈αas␈αpossible
␈↓ α∧␈↓but not at the cost of snooping in people's private files or preventing home terminals.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ β$7.6.␈α⊃Banking␈α⊃today␈α⊃combines␈α⊂two␈α⊃functions:␈α⊃The␈α⊃first␈α⊂is␈α⊃recording␈α⊃who␈α⊃has␈α⊂what
␈↓ α∧␈↓money␈α∞and␈α∞transferring␈α∞it␈α∞on␈α∞properly␈α∞authenticated␈α∞demand,␈α∞and␈α∞the␈α∞second␈α∞end␈α∞is␈α
borrowing
␈↓ α∧␈↓money␈α∞and␈α∞prudently␈α∞relending␈α∂it␈α∞at␈α∞higher␈α∞interest.␈α∞ The␈α∂first␈α∞function␈α∞may␈α∞well␈α∞be␈α∂a␈α∞natural
␈↓ α∧␈↓monopoly␈α⊂in␈α⊃an␈α⊂electronic␈α⊂system␈α⊃and␈α⊂the␈α⊂second␈α⊃definitely␈α⊂is␈α⊂not.␈α⊃ Therefore␈α⊂it␈α⊃may␈α⊂become
␈↓ α∧␈↓necessary␈αto␈αseparate␈αthese␈αfunctions.␈α Once␈αthey␈αare␈αseparated,␈αthe␈αcompetition␈αin␈αborrowing␈αand
␈↓ α∧␈↓relending␈α
money␈α
can␈αbecome␈α
more␈α
effectively␈αnationwide.␈α
Legislative␈α
action␈αwill␈α
be␈α
necessary␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓separate these two functions.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu18␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓α␈↓ βzSOME RELEVANT EXPERIENCE AND EXPERIMENTS
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α⊂Stanford␈α∂Artificial␈α⊂Intelligence␈α∂Laboratory␈α⊂has␈α∂had␈α⊂a␈α∂time-sharing␈α⊂computer␈α∂system
␈↓ α∧␈↓since␈α1965.␈α Since␈α1971␈αwe␈αhave␈αhad␈αkeyboard␈αand␈αdisplay␈αterminals␈αin␈αall␈αoffices␈αincluding␈α
those
␈↓ α∧␈↓of␈αsecretaries␈αand␈αour␈αbusiness␈αmanager;␈α
this␈αis␈αstill␈αrather␈αuncommon,␈αbecause␈αmost␈α
organizations
␈↓ α∧␈↓are␈αcommitted␈αto␈αunnecessarily␈αexpensive␈αtechnologies.␈α Since␈α1972␈αour␈αcomputer␈αhas␈αbeen␈αpart␈αof
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈αARPA␈α
Network␈αthat␈αconnects␈α
about␈α60␈α
laboratories␈αand␈αother␈α
installations␈αsupported␈α
by␈αthe
␈↓ α∧␈↓Defense Department.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αTThe␈α∂main␈α∂use␈α∞of␈α∂the␈α∂Laboratory's␈α∞computer␈α∂system␈α∂is␈α∞research␈α∂programming␈α∂in␈α∞artificial
␈↓ α∧␈↓intelligence␈α
which␈αis␈α
not␈αwhat␈α
most␈αcitizens␈α
will␈αuse␈α
their␈αhome␈α
terminals␈αfor.␈α
However,␈α
we␈αalso
␈↓ α∧␈↓use␈α∪it␈α∪for␈α∪writing,␈α∪editing␈α∪and␈α∪storing␈α∪reports,␈α∪for␈α∪exchanging␈α∪messages,␈α∪and␈α∪as␈α∪an␈α∪aid␈α∪in
␈↓ α∧␈↓administering␈αour␈αproject␈αand␈αfacilities,␈αand␈αsome␈αof␈αthis␈αexperience␈αis␈αrelevant␈αto␈αhome␈αterminal
␈↓ α∧␈↓use. Here are some of our conclusions:
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT1.␈αOffice␈αand␈αhome␈αuse␈αof␈αcomputers␈αwill␈αdepend␈αdecisively␈αon␈αconvenience,␈αand␈αa␈αterminal
␈↓ α∧␈↓in each office is an absolute necessity.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT2.␈α∪Inexperience␈α∪in␈α∪typing␈α∪is␈α∪a␈α∪psychological␈α∪hazard␈α∪for␈α∪people␈α∪contemplating␈α∀using␈α∪a
␈↓ α∧␈↓computer, but it is not a practical barrier even for people who have never touched a typewriter.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT3.␈α∂The␈α∂human␈α∂engineering␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂time-sharing␈α∂system␈α∂and␈α∂especially␈α∂the␈α⊂editor␈α∂program
␈↓ α∧␈↓very␈α⊃important␈α⊃if␈α∩the␈α⊃facilities␈α⊃are␈α∩to␈α⊃be␈α⊃used␈α⊃casually␈α∩by␈α⊃non-computer␈α⊃people.␈α∩ Having␈α⊃an
␈↓ α∧␈↓adequate␈α
small␈α
set␈α∞of␈α
commands␈α
is␈α∞very␈α
important,␈α
but␈α
additional␈α∞commands␈α
for␈α
expert␈α∞use␈α
are
␈↓ α∧␈↓fine␈α
provided␈α
beginners␈αand␈α
casual␈α
users␈α
don't␈αhave␈α
to␈α
learn␈α
them.␈α It␈α
is␈α
especially␈α
important␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓keep␈α
down␈α
the␈α
number␈αof␈α
concepts␈α
that␈α
have␈αto␈α
be␈α
learned.␈α
Having␈αdone␈α
all␈α
this,␈α
we␈α
find␈αthat
␈↓ α∧␈↓temporary␈αsecretaries␈αfilling␈αin␈αwhile␈αthe␈αregular␈αsecretaries␈αare␈αon␈αvacation␈αcan␈αuse␈αthe␈αeditor␈αto
␈↓ α∧␈↓prepare documents with help from regular secretaries.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu19␈↓ ∧
␈↓ α∧␈↓Home Terminals␈↓
aJune 6, 1976
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT4.␈α∩The␈α∩ARPA␈α∩net␈α∩has␈α∩a␈α∩facility␈α∩for␈α∩sending␈α∩messages␈α∩to␈α∩users␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩same␈α∪or␈α∩other
␈↓ α∧␈↓computers␈α∞on␈α∞the␈α
net.␈α∞ The␈α∞user␈α
is␈α∞notified␈α∞of␈α∞his␈α
message␈α∞immediately␈α∞if␈α
he␈α∞is␈α∞logged␈α∞into␈α
his
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminal␈αand␈α
the␈αnext␈α
time␈αhe␈α
logs␈αin␈α
otherwise.␈α The␈α
time␈αrequired␈α
to␈αsend␈α
a␈αmessage␈α
is␈αabout␈α
10
␈↓ α∧␈↓seconds␈α
plus␈α
the␈α
time␈α∞required␈α
to␈α
type␈α
it.␈α∞ It␈α
is␈α
not␈α
clear␈α
why,␈α∞but␈α
the␈α
written␈α
message␈α∞system␈α
is
␈↓ α∧␈↓often␈α
preferred␈α
to␈α
the␈α
telephone,␈αto␈α
visiting␈α
the␈α
other␈α
person's␈αoffice␈α
or␈α
to␈α
written␈α
notes.␈α Maybe
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α∞reason␈α
is␈α∞that␈α
each␈α∞of␈α
the␈α∞other␈α
procedures␈α∞may␈α
be␈α∞frustrating,␈α
while␈α∞sending␈α∞the␈α
computer
␈↓ α∧␈↓message␈αis␈αalways␈αcompleted␈αpromptly,␈αeven␈αthough␈αthe␈αrecipient␈αwon't␈αget␈αit␈αunless␈αhe␈αlogs␈αin.␈α I
␈↓ α∧␈↓receive about 100 messages per month.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT5.␈α
We␈α
have␈α
an␈α
experimental␈α
news␈α
service␈αusing␈α
the␈α
national␈α
news␈α
wires␈α
of␈α
the␈αAssociated
␈↓ α∧␈↓Press␈α⊂and␈α∂the␈α⊂␈↓↓New␈α⊂York␈α∂Times␈↓␈α⊂news␈α∂services.␈α⊂ A␈α⊂user␈α∂can␈α⊂type␈α∂an␈α⊂expression␈α⊂like␈α∂"kissinger-
␈↓ α∧␈↓moscow"␈αand␈αbe␈αtold␈αthat␈αthere␈αare␈α10␈αstories␈αcontaining␈αthe␈αword␈α"Kissinger"␈αand␈αnot␈αcontaining
␈↓ α∧␈↓the␈α
word␈α"Moscow"␈α
in␈αtoday's␈α
news.␈α
The␈αuser␈α
can␈αthen␈α
look␈α
at␈αwhatever␈α
stories␈αhe␈α
wants␈αto.␈α
The
␈↓ α∧␈↓service␈α∂is␈α∂popular␈α∂in␈α∂times␈α⊂of␈α∂crisis,␈α∂but␈α∂the␈α∂computer␈α⊂is␈α∂heavily␈α∂loaded,␈α∂so␈α∂the␈α⊂waits␈α∂between
␈↓ α∧␈↓stories␈αare␈αoften␈αunacceptably␈αlong.␈α Experience␈α
with␈αthe␈αservice␈αemphasizes␈αthe␈αshallowness␈α
of␈αa
␈↓ α∧␈↓news␈αcoverage␈αin␈α
which␈αreporters␈αfile␈α
only␈αstories␈αlikely␈αto␈α
be␈αchosen␈αfor␈α
a␈αlimited␈αnews␈αspace␈α
that
␈↓ α∧␈↓must contain only items judged to be of general interest.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ αT6.␈α∂We␈α∞also␈α∂have␈α∂two␈α∞novels␈α∂stored␈α∞on␈α∂disk,␈α∂and␈α∞it␈α∂is␈α∞quite␈α∂feasible␈α∂to␈α∞read␈α∂them␈α∂on␈α∞the
␈↓ α∧␈↓terminals.␈α The␈αquality␈αis␈αabout␈αlike␈αbad␈αpulp␈αpaper,␈αand␈αtwo␈αnovels␈αis␈αnot␈αmuch␈αof␈αa␈αlibrary.␈α
In
␈↓ α∧␈↓compensation, the computer remembers your place.
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ ∧](this draft compiled at 19:47 on June 6, 1976)
␈↓ α∧␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ α∧␈↓Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford University
␈↓ α∧␈↓Stanford, California 94305
␈↓ α∧␈↓␈↓ εu20␈↓ ∧